What is Abu Dhabi's thinking?

He's back.

The man with his own UAE community blog category has added his voice to the speculation about what the Dubai default ways about relations between Abu Dhabi and Dubai:

The answer to this conundrum lies in both the past and the present, as an age-old rivalry has resurfaced that sees Dubai unwilling to part with its autonomy and come to the table. Dubai, after it broke away from the sheikhdom of Abu Dhabi in 1833, survived repeated attempts at reintegration only because of its peace treaties with Britain. Even in the 1940s, with Britain fully engaged in the second world war and less able to give attention to the region, there was an armed conflict between the two sheikhdoms. In 1979, just eight years after the UAE was formed, a constitutional crisis threatened to break the UAE apart, with Dubai resentful of increasing Abu Dhabi-led centralisation. It is remarkable that Dubai agreed to merge its armed forces - the Dubai Defence Force - into the federal military only in 1996.

In the light of this history of some tension, Abu Dhabi has taken an unexpectedly shrewd stance on the financial disaster. Its thinking appears to be that Dubai’s bad debts really are bad, and could well end up becoming black holes. Moreover, if Abu Dhabi gets involved now, then the lawsuits that will almost certainly be coming Dubai’s way may land on the desks of the federal government or even those of Abu Dhabi.

There is a deeper point. Sheikh Mohammed, his crown prince, and his top lieutenants are now all exposed as having long circumvented the truth; as a result, the ruling family has suffered a massive loss of legitimacy, both internationally and in the eyes of Dubai’s business elite and citizenry. Yet at the time of writing there have been no signs of humility; on the contrary, the ruler stated on 1 December that investors “do not understand anything”.

Read it all.

Christopher Davidson has not always been popular with either ruling family, but he's a favorite of the reporter looking for a quote.

More to it than book flogging?

British academic, Christopher Davidson, is making the same accusation about new book on Abu Dhabi as he made on his recent book on Dubai: that the authorities are blocking the distribution of the book in the UAE.

Forbes:

Davidson's book is available in much of the rest of the world, but distributors in the U.A.E. contacted him via e-mail in May with an early indication that the powers-that-be were not happy. "The censors reported the book is well-written, but because it discusses the fratricides in the 1920s, it will have to go to the highest authorities for approval," he said, citing the e-mail. The 1920s was a particularly bloody time in Abu Dhabi's history, as three of Sheikh Zayid bin Khalifah's sons took power by killing a brother.

But Davidson doesn't think century-old blood is the real reason for the delay in approving the 276-page book, which the "highest authorities" have not yet ruled on after four months. He says it's more likely to relate to the contemporary elements in his book, namely Abu Dhabi's weak human rights record and--ironically--its tightening grip on media censorship.

Davidson says censorship in the U.A.E. is the most "sinister" in the region, and succeeds not by heavy-handed interference but by creating a subtle atmosphere of self-censorship. He cites a new media law passed earlier this year, which threatens fines of up to 1 million dirhams ($272,250) for critical reporting on U.A.E. authorities--including Abu Dhabi's ruler Sheikh Khalifah bin Zayed al-Nahayan, or his billionaire half-brother Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahayan--and asks media organizations to set aside provisions as "collateral" for these fines.

"What the U.A.E. can't allow to happen is direct criticism of members of the ruling family, or what they call "negative reporting" on the U.A.E. economy that could damage confidence," says Davidson. "When you have an economy that relies so heavily on foreign direct investment, you can't have the hedge funds selling short the U.A.E."

For more on Christopher Davidson check out my catalog of posts on him at The Emirates Economist.

Davidson says don't blame Abu Dhabi

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Abu Dhabi has been blamed for most of these contentious issues. Am I wrong? If not, who gets credit for these decisions below: Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

Bloomberg:

The decision was the personal initiative of a low-ranking immigration officer in Dubai, according to two Dubai government officials who refused to be identified because they aren’t authorized to publicly comment on the incident.

Dubai Naturalisation and Residency Department director Mohammed Al-Marri, a federal official who has the final say on issuing all visas to Dubai, declined to comment
...
The Peer controversy is one in a series of incidents that have tarnished Dubai’s reputation as a more relaxed sheikhdom where decisions are driven by money, not ideology.

A book depicting a gay sheikh was banned Feb. 16 at a literary festival staged by government-owned carrier, Emirates. A law that will impose fines of up to a million dirhams ($272,000) on local journalists who harm the U.A.E. rulers’ reputation is planned. The government has made it illegal to fire an Emirati employee if a foreigner is doing the same job.

Dubai was behind the media law and the firing restrictions, which apply to the whole U.A.E., said Christopher Davidson, author of the 2008 book “Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success.”

“Dubai’s success has been based on being open,” Davidson said. “These are really bad steps that turn the clock back.”

Is Davidson correct?

Book not banned?

"ABU DHABI // The National Media Council denied last night that it had banned a study of Dubai written by a former professor at Abu Dhabi’s Zayed University and said approval for publication in the UAE had been granted.

There were claims in the British press that Dr Christopher Davidson’s book, Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success, had been banned due to its content.

But yesterday, the NMC confirmed it had already been approved for countrywide distribution, said Peter Hellyer, the council’s information adviser.

“The council felt the book should be taken seriously and so we’ve studied it carefully,” said Mr Hellyer. “The process takes time and Dr Davidson told the media the academic book had been banned before the National Media Council had even seen it.”

...

Mr Hellyer said that while there had never been a ban, the study contained “a plethora of errors”.

“There is a statement that there was no tarmac highway between Abu Dhabi and Dubai until the mid-1990s, and no all-weather road between Dubai and Fujairah until 2006,” Mr Hellyer said. “These are clearly completely wrong and it makes one doubt the quality and depth of his research.”

He also took issue, he said, with a section regarding the discovery of Dubai’s oil fields.

Mr Davidson “writes that in the mid-1960s, Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed, the Ruler of Dubai, created a company to operate Dubai’s on-shore oil fields,” Mr Hellyer said. “The only on-shore oil fields were not discovered until 1982.”

more here

book banned

"A UK academic's analysis of Dubai's rise to prominence in the Gulf has been banned from being sold in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Christopher Davidson, author of Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success, said the ban was an own goal by a country that is at pains to present itself as an open society with aspirations for its higher education sector.

Dr Davidson, a lecturer at Durham University's School of Government and International Affairs, has previously worked in the UAE at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi. He has also acted as a consultant to the Dubai Government.

...

Dr Davidson said: "This is an academic book published by Columbia University Press, so it went through a rigorous peer-review process.

"Crucially, it is independent research, written by someone whose salary is not paid in the UAE, so there's none of the self-censorship that often prevents people who live there discussing anything beyond the bland and banal about the ruling families."

The result, he said, is that the National Media Council - which rules on censorship - had no leverage over the book's content and had made a "kneejerk" reaction.

"It's rare that a peer-reviewed academic book from an esteemed press is banned - it just makes them look as though they've got something to hide, and of course in the internet age with online booksellers it is also rather pointless."

more here

Interesting stuff on Dubai

Internet Middle East Forum/News site Bitter Lemons has just published three articles in a special about Dubai. Links below (although separate article links may not work!)

http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/

The Dubai phenomenon
Talent, critical mass drive Dubai forward Afshin Molavi
Talk of a Dubai "model" enters shaky ground. Saudi Arabia cannot import thousands of bankers when so many Saudis need jobs.

Model unmatched in a volatile region Riad Kahwaji
It would be logical to assume that harming Dubai would not be in anybody's interest, including the bad guys.

The hidden costs of Dubai's post-oil diversification strategies Christopher Davidson
Dubai's recent reforms upset the cultural and religious resources of the "ruling bargain".