17 July, 2006

After Lebanon, what next?

Yesterday Gaza, today Lebanon... how far is this going to go? An ugly scenario has popped into my mind. I mention it here, because it is a scenario that could impact the UAE much more than any of us would like.

Israel goes on to do in Syria what it is doing now in Lebanon. Of course, Syria would strike back. The US goes on to continue taunting Iran till it decides it is time to roll in and attack from Iraq. By this time all the Gulf countries are forced to take sides, and as long as the battle goes the way of the Americans and Israelis, Saudi Arabia will be next on the drawing board. A scary thought.

I'm not a person who beleives in wild theories, but if anyone had told me a month ago that Israel would be doing what it is doing in Lebanon now, and getting away with it, I wouldn't have believed it.

The fact that within a fortnight Israel can launch attacks on two territories, over something as trivial (relatively speaking) as a soldier getting kidnapped, and the US fails to intervene and tell them to pull back, then I'm starting to think any number of other horrible scenarios could play out.

16 comments:

TwinTopaz said...

As i have mentioned somewhere earlier...Israeli soldier was NOT kidnapped but "captured" in a combat situation..remember both Palestine and Israel are in state of war..the soldier was not there for picnic..he was there to kill and occupy!

BD said...

Yes, you're right about that. I totally agree. The Israelli position is that "Our poor little, innocent soldier was abuducted... Now we have to move heaven and earth (or rather destroy heaven and earth) to rescue him." It's all baloney.

Fahad Al Mahmood said...

It's amazing how the whole world is so silent about what is happening in Lebanon ...

But what is more amazing is the silence of the Arab governments who seem to care less about what is happening over there ...

This is so shameful ... all the blood and death of the innocent men, women, and children are blamed equally on the Arab leaders as much as Israel ... if not more ....

John B. Chilton said...

Gulfnews: Lebanese Expats divided on blame.

Foolsgold said...

You think its amazing that the Arab goverments are silent about the Lebanese crisis?

I can't imagine anyone expecting them to take firm stands against or for anything!

This war is like a cancer. There is little hope that anyone who CAN do something to stop it will, and anyone who wants to could.

BD said...

There may be little hope that we, individuals as we are, can do much. But it doesn't hurt to discuss it. At least we may help to educate others and ourselves.

Actually, I think it is too early to criticize anyone's slow repsones--except of those with the most influence like the US and the UN. It has only been a week. The verdict is still out on whether other Arab countries or the public anywhere will respond more vociferously.

Maybe there will be protests in the streets around the world as what preceded the Iraq war. That, too, was months in evolving.

Dry Gin Martini said...

God forbid the Arab world has to finally take a stand. Your scenario is way far fetched, Lebanon will always remain the playground because it's the easy target. Please don't disturb your leaders, let them enjoy the wealth and peace of mind.

Dry Gin Martini said...

I believe that the biggest influence in this conflict is us Arabs, but alas, all we are good at is blaming the world and the United States, while our leaders sit back on their thrones with impotence, dishonesty, inter-Arab conflict, undemocratic and inhumane self survival policies, wasted time, lives, money and resources, while most of them live a hypocritical image of true Islam. For the past 53 years the Arab and Muslim world did not and could develop a method to counteract Israel’s power over the US and Europe. As an Arab, it is very shameful for me to hear American officials saying that the Arab leaders say one thing in private, while denouncing Israel in public. Not one leader has stood up to the American-Israeli bond with faith, courage, and trust in his people. Saddam Hussein challenged them, but it turned out to be for his own personal expansionist goals. What a shame. Even the European Union was planning to impose sanctions on Israel in early 2000, while Egypt and Jordan didn’t break political ties with it. Zionism will prevail because although the state of Israel is founded on prejudice, even though it is born from the womb of war and violence, the Israeli and Jewish people put their resources together, and use their influence on a world scale for the good of their people. Our leaders will just sit there, and as usual take no action, because all they’re good for is suppressing the human rights of our people, and beating university students while they peacefully protest in our streets. Meanwhile 5 year old girls and 70 year old men are being shot in cold blood.
Today I speak to you as a Lebanese, moreso than ever. Every milliliter of Lebanese blood within my body is boiling, my head is steaming, and every ounce of passion in my body is manifesting itself. Give me a weapon and point me in the direction of the enemy, whichever enemy it may be, since the Lebanese people have many many of them, and I will jump in there armed with faith, my heart, courage, and lots of love for every oppressed Lebanese living in this world. YOU WILL NOT BRING US DOWN. WE BROUGHT LIGHT TO THIS WORLD. WE BROUGHT YOU THE ALPHABET. WE BROUGHT YOU MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE WHILE YOU WERE LIVING WITH THE PIGS. WE BROUGHT YOU LAW, WE BROUGHT YOU MEDICINE. OUR HERITAGE AND HISTORY START WITH THE DAWN OF THE WORLD. OUR CEDARS REPRESENT ETERNITY AS IS STATED IN THE BIBLE. YOU WILL NOT BREAK US. STOP YOUR MADNESS YOU MURDEROUS BEASTS. LEAVE US ALONE, LET US LIVE OUR LIVES LIKE THE PASSIONATE, HOT-BLOODED LOVERS OF LIFE WE ARE.

TWO RALLIES GOING ON ON THE EAST COAST. PLEASE JOIN US.

NYC: VISIT MIRVAT'S BLOG

BOSTON: VISIT MONONOKE'S BLOG

Anonymous said...

Looks like the only guy happy and satisfied with all this is Shaikh Hassan Nasrallah.You can see that from the smirk on his face.

Good work, Shaikh, you got what you wanted. We're all so proud of you.

Seabee said...

" but if anyone had told me a month ago that Israel would be doing what it is doing in Lebanon now, and getting away with it, I wouldn't have believed it"

Surely not? Israel has been getting away with unacceptable behaviour for decades and since W came to power it's pushed the boundaries to extremes.

Tim Newman said...

As i have mentioned somewhere earlier...Israeli soldier was NOT kidnapped but "captured" in a combat situation..remember both Palestine and Israel are in state of war..the soldier was not there for picnic..he was there to kill and occupy!

The soldiers in question were on Israeli soil when they were attacked an captured by a militia operating on Lebanese soil. This is an act of war, and has nothing to do with Palestine.

Tim Newman said...

The Israelli position is that "Our poor little, innocent soldier was abuducted... Now we have to move heaven and earth (or rather destroy heaven and earth) to rescue him." It's all baloney.

The country who abandons its soldiers when they are captured from their own soil by foreign militia would not be worth serving. The Israelis always go after their captured soldiers, if they didn't, they wouldn't have an army worth a dime.

Tim Newman said...

For the past 53 years the Arab and Muslim world did not and could develop a method to counteract Israel’s power over the US and Europe.

Except for launching 3 genocidal wars aimed add ending Israel's existence, of course.

bandicoot said...

Tim, any discussion of this issue needs to be fair and intelligent. Many people would strongly disagree with the Hizbollah attacks and other aspects of their politics and ideology; and that's fine. But to try to paint this as a black and white situation is an oversimplification and even insulting. Israel is in effect committing war crimes in Lebanon. NOTHING can excuse this campaing of death and destruction. You can go and read the Geneva Conventions on the rules of war and decide for yourself. The question is, no matter what you think of Hamas and Hizbollah, do you justify what Israel is doing in Lebanon? My comments on your statements follow:

The soldiers in question were on Israeli soil when they were attacked...This is an act of war.

Correct, except by the same logic Israel is guilty of numerous kidnappings and killings of Palestinians (including hundreds who’ve never been charged). Many were literally kidnapped by the army or liquidated by death squads. As for Lebanon, Also Israel routinely violates Lebanese air space and territorial waters (not to mention keeping Lebanese prisoners); this is an act of war, or at least an invitation for violence.

The country who abandons its soldiers when they are captured....wouldn't have an army worth a dime.

Fine, I hope you see that the same thing applies to Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners, many of them were kidnapped and being held without any due process. Now what do you propose these people should do to get their prisoners back?

No problem with the principle for me; the bigger question now though is HOW you get your soldiers back? What do have to do? How far can you go? How many civilians you're willing to kill? How many villages and cities you will destroy? And seriously, is it even about getting back the captured/kidnapped/whatever soldiers? We all know it is not.

Except for launching 3 genocidal wars aimed add ending Israel's existence, of course.

Oh come on now! Every single war Israel launched since its unfortunate inception was a war of choice, except the 1973 war. Israeli propaganda has always trumpeted its wars as existential or wars for survival; that is simply not true. Even the 1948 war was started by Israel (a large scale military campaigns to secure Arab areas and force Palestinians into fleeing commenced in 1947; check historical record). Israel has NEVER been in danger of genocide; though it’s likely the one-track-mind generals leading its government now may well be taking Israel (and perhaps others) into a genocidal direction.

Anonymous said...

http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/blueberry/2006/jul/20/some_thoughts_from_the_middle_east

Anonymous said...

Some Thoughts

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